China has the largest population in the world, and this is a really famous fact. (China warns of population growth.2007). There are many opinions that concern the overpopulation problem, and of course this problem will happen in the near future. However, we also should think about the low population problem. Do you know that China is one of the countries that have the lowest fertility in developing countries, and that some decades from now, the population will drop? According to Matt Rosenberg, “By the late 2010s, China's population is expected to reach 1.4 billion. Around 2030, China's population is anticipated to peak and then slowly start dropping” (2007). Recently, some researchers have begun to have interests and concerns with this problem because of that risk. And the main 4 problems of Chinese population growth are the following; the Chinese population growth as “Negative growth”, low population problem, the world being influence by Chinese problem, and the influence in the future by the today’s over population problem.
This argument’s background is divided into three points, the change of Chinese population growth, the reason for the decrease of Chinese population growth, and who argues about that.
The first point is the population change, this can be divided in according to age; before the 1970s, 1970s-today, and the future. In People's Daily (para2, 2004) online, the writer says, "The birth rate and natural growth rate of China's population have been cut by half and by about two-thirds, respectively, since 1970, but the country is still under pressure from a large growing population,’ the periodical, formerly called Fortnightly Review, a leading bi-weekly periodical on current affairs, quoted Zhang Weiqing, head of the State Family Planning Commission, as saying.” (April 12, 2000). Against huge population, the government planned to reduce birth rate, and that was a success. The one-child policy, which is the plan that required the Chinese people to have just one or two children and charge a penalty to who have more than three children, also was born in this decade. Therefore, the fertility rate in China has decrease since 1970s, but, the huge population can’t be changed, even now the numbers are increasing each year. According to Columbia University, East Asian Curriculum Project, “ China's birth rate eventually declined to 1.03 percent in 1995, an extraordinarily low rate for a developing country. Still, because of the absolute size of the country's total population, there is a net increase of about one million each month, an annual gain of over 12,000,000 that equals the total population of New York City.” So China’s population will increase until the near future, however, as Matt Rosenberg said, after some decades, the decrease will start surely.
The second point is the reason for the decrease in Chinese population growth. Why Chinese population growth is decreasing now? Actually, there are three factors. One big reason is the famous policy, the one-child plan. Most families have less than two children, because of the penalty that requires paying money. And, women’s advances also influence the birth rate. According to People's Daily Online, “Low birth-giving rate of modern women is closely related to the modern life. In this rapidly developing era, women are more and more independent and bearing heavy pressures in the meanwhile. Therefore no responsible woman would give an easy answer to the serious matter of whether or not to have babies.” (para1,2004). Third reason is industrialization and urbanization of China. The last point of background is who argue about that. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, the countries that have rapid revolutions are likely to become lower in population. Now, China is developing quickly, and this is why they also will have low fertility.
And one who would argue about Chinese low population is Matt Rosenberg (2007), a professional geographer and the author. He explains that China’s population will decrease in his article.
Above this background, it is important to argue about low population growth in China. Besides, low population will be a problem in the future, so we can try to prevent and avoid those problems that will happen by thinking about them now. And then, there are four main factors that we should discuss.
First one is about the Chinese population growth as “Negative growth”. In 2050, the number of old people will more increase, and the number of young people will decrease more. (IIASA,1999). The population balance will collapse and this trend will have a bad influence on Chinese society. That is a really awful case.
Second one is about the low population problems. If the number of people who can work will decrease, Chinese economy will decline. Additionally, because old people are more than young people, they will have an extremely huge weight to take care of their parents’ generation. Besides, China has a lot of land, so the shortage of workers who manage it will happen.
Third one is about the influence of Chinese low population growth problem. Nowadays, China has large effects on other countries. The imports and exports are active, and then many foreign companies are built in China. If Chinese population growth drops and become unbalanced, other countries and companies should also suffer.
The final points are about the influence by the action to avoid overpopulation on the future’s low population. That is to say, today the government does some policy or action to reduce population, but this can make a low population problem in the future more serious. Of course, overpopulation will cause some problems like pollution and shortage of jobs. However, without thinking about what follows overpopulation, only being concerned about today’s problems, China can’t avoid additional problems.
In conclusion, Chinese government should think and plan about the problem in the future, and, there are four solutions to do now. The first one is improving relationships between China and other countries. By this action, emigration and immigration will be active, and then when the shortages of Chinese workers happen, they can ask for other countries’ help. Additionally, this good relationship can be useful to control today’s over population. The Chinese government should plan to have good relationships as soon as possible.
The second idea is preparing for encouragement of marrying and producing babies. Actually, this is difficult to act because now, they have too many babies. But surely, in the future, there will be a time that they need to have more babies like now some developed countries, so they should think about that from now.
The third idea is planning how take care of old people. Because the number of old people and young people will be imbalanced, the weight to take care of them and pay money for them will become heavier than now. This problem makes young people busy and poor, and then it will be hard for them to have babies. This is not too much to say, because in Japan, already such a thing has happened.
And final idea is studying other countries’ cases. Today, many developed countries have difficulties of the shortage of young population. This is the result of industrialization and most all countries that become rich will experience this. Therefore, there can be different idea to avoid and solve low population problem in the world or the bad experience, and China can use those things for their own actions.
China’s real problem to solve now is not only overpopulation but also a low population problem.
References
Matt, Rosenberg. ( 2007 January 20). The Population Growth of the World's Largest Country.
The New York Times Company. Retrieved 2007 from
http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/chinapopulation.htm
China Striving to Keep Birth Rate Low. ( 2000 April). People's Daily Online. Retrieved April 12, 2000, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/english/200004/12/eng20000412_38730.html
China's Population by Age & Sex, 1950 – 2050. (1999). IIASA. Retrieved 1999, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/anim/pop_ani.htm
China warns of population growth (2007 May). BBC NEWS. Retrieved May, 7, 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6631471.stm
Why birth rate in China keeps dropping. (2004 March 31). People's Daily Online. 2004,
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200403/31/eng20040331_139051.shtml
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
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